Tag: Troy Trojans

Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves College Football Pick from Larry Ness: December 2nd 2017

| December 1, 2017

Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
College Football Pick: Troy -1 (December 2nd 2017)

The Trojans come into the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game having won five in a row and nine of their last ten. The Red Wolves come in equally as hot, having won six of seven.

Troy QB Brad Silvers had 380 yards and four TD’s and didn’t even play the fourth quarter in last week’s 62-9 annihilation of Texas State. In all the Trojans would post 600 yards, including 154 on the ground.

Last week the Red Wolves put up 781 yards of total offense in a blowout win over Louisiana Monroe.

These teams are very evenly matched. But Troy has the advantage defensively, and note that it also plays with revenge after falling to Arkansas State 35-3 last year.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Trojans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 on the road and already 2-1 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Arkansas State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog.

I’ll recommend a second look at Troy in this one.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Troy Trojans Football Betting Pick from Jimmy Boyd: November 17th 2016

| November 17, 2016

ARKANSAS STATE VS. TROY BETTINGArkansas State Red Wolves vs. Troy Trojans
Betting Pick: Arkansas State +8.5 points (November 17th 2016)

I just think we are getting an inflated line here because of the Trojans being ranked in the Top 25 (AP Poll). While a great accomplishment, I’m not buying there only being 24 teams better than Troy.

Sure the Trojans have the better overall record, but both of these teams come in at 5-0 in Sun Belt play. Arkansas State has been a completely different team since they started out the year 0-4. I think this a much more evenly matched game than the spread here would suggest.

These two teams have played 3 common opponents. Troy is averaging almost 7 points and 110 yards more than Arkansas State in these games. However, the Red Wolves are allowing almost 90 yards fewer on the defensive side of the ball.

While Troy’s ranks 38th in the country in total defense, they are 106th against the pass, allowing 265.1 ypg. Arkansas State has a decent passing attack, as they are 55th in the country at 243.4 ypg. I look for the Red Wolves to be able keep pace offensively in this one. I also think there defense is going to play well here.

I also think there’s a slight edge here to Arkansas State based on the schedule. Both teams are playing on short rest (4 days). The big difference is the Red Wolves come in off an easy game last week against New Mexico State. Troy on the other hand played a huge game against Appalachian State. I just think it’s going to be a lot easier for Arkansas State to rebound in this spot.

A lot of Troy’s success has been a result of them winning the turnover battle. The Trojans have a +9 turnover margin on the season. Arkansas State has turned it over just 3 times in their last 4 games. On top of that, they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a +1 turnover margin/game. The Red Wolves are also a dominant 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Supporting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark this season. Take Arkansas State!

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