MLB Picks for May 27th 2011: Put Your Money On Shaun Marcum And The Brewers

May 27, 2011 By

MLB Picks: May 27th 2011
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Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -109
I’m not in the habit of fading Tim Lincecum, but I’ll make an exception in this game. The Brewers are rested, have momentum riding 13 wins in their last 16 games and are at home. Milwaukee is a major league-best 19-6 at Miller Park. The Brewers also are throwing a pitcher who is in the argument for best pitcher in the National League this season – Shaun Marcum. Marcum is thriving away from Toronto and the brutal American League East. He’s 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA. Marcum hasn’t lost since his second start of the season, a span of nine games. He’s given up one run or fewer in six of those nine outings. The Giants rank second-to-last in the majors in runs scored. They are 25th in homers, 25th in on-base percentage and 23rd in slugging percentage. And this is before they lost cleanup hitter and star catcher Buster Posey. The shock of losing Posey, who broke his leg in a home plate collision late Wednesday night, still is lingering for the Giants. San Francisco also had to play yesterday, not getting into Milwaukee until late while the Brewers were idle on Thursday. Normally the Giants still would be worthy of respect because of Lincecum. But Lincecum is 2-3 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 4.62 ERA in seven starts. Lincecum also threw 133 pitches, the second-highest total of his career, during his last start this past Saturday against Oakland. Lincecum is 7-10 with a 4.00 ERA following starts in which he threw more than 115 pitches. He’s 54-20 with a 2.50 ERA in all other games. -Stephen Nover

Pick: Washington Nationals -125
On Friday the Free MLB System Play is on the Washington Nationals. Game 954 at 7:05 eastern. Washington fits a nice system here tonight that plays on home teams with a total of 8 or less off a road loss where they scored 4 or less runs and are now taking on an opponent off a home dog win in which they scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits. Washington has won 5 of 7 off 3 or more losses. The Padres are one of the worst offensive teams in the majors. They are 8-23 in night games and 4-15 off a win. They are averaging a paltry 1.3 runs per game on .163 hitting over their past seven games. They have C. Richard making the start tonight and he has an elevated 7.27 road ERA this season. In his last 2 starts vs Washington he has been mediocre allowing 9 runs in 13 innings. Tonight he opposes Washington lefty J. Lannan. In his career vs the Padres Lannan has a 2.73 ERA. In his home starts this season he has a 2.62 ERA. Based on the system, the angles and Pitching We will back Washington tonight. On Friday the lead play is a Rare 6* MLB Total of the Month backed by a never lost 18-0 Totals system. I also have a 92% Side system and an NHL Game seven Play. Jump on and start Memorial day weekend big. For the free play take Washington. -Rob Vinciletti (Handicapperspicks.com)

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MLB Picks for May 20th 2011: Bet The Diamondbacks And Orioles On Friday Night

May 20, 2011 By

MLB Picks: May 20th 2011
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Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -169
Both these teams have “turned it on” recently. After an extended skid, the Twins have managed to win three in a row. The Diamondbacks have also won three straight though and they’ve now won five of six. Playing at home and having a starter in MUCH better current form, I expect them to have the advantage this evening.Duensing goes for the visitors. Last time out, he got rocked for seven runs in just three innings of work. That brings him to 0-3 with a brutal 7.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his last three starts. On the other hand, Kennedy is 1-0 with a superb 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last three starts. Last time out, he allowed one run on four hits, through six complete innings. He had 8 K’s with just one walk. In his previous starts, he also had 8 K’s and also allowed just four hits. However, that translated to eight shutout innings. While the Twins are just 11-16 on the road, the Diamondbacks are a respectable 13-10 (+3.4) at home. While the price may initially seem steep, note that the Dbax are 17-6 (+7) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Consider laying the wood. -Ben Burns

Pick: Baltimore Orioles -145
Today’s Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #910 Baltimore Orioles over Washington Nationals (7:05 pm MLB.tv) We like this matchup of Arrieta against Marquis, especially at Camden Yards. Marquis comes in with a slightly lower ERA, but a higher WHIP (walks, hits, per innings pitched). We always love being on the right side of that stat, as it’s much more important to us than ERA. Yankees were hard on Baltimore yesterday and the Orioles lost a heart breaker the night before, so look for them to bounce back against their local rivals. Jump on with us for the weekend, or better yet, the year, because even though this is a strong play, it doesn’t compare to games released on our pay page. You don’t think we’d give away our strongest games do you? If our free plays are doing this well, just imagine what’s going to happen with our pay plays. -Doc’s Sports (Handicapperspicks.com)

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MLB Picks for May 5th 2011: The Rays And Brewers Look To Get The Win Tonight

May 5, 2011 By

MLB Picks: May 5th 2011
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Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -150
After the Rays won Tuesday’s opener, the Jays bounced back with a win in yesterday’s contest. Both games had identical 3-2 scores. The Rays have still dominated the Jays here in recent seasons and I expect them to have the advantage in this afternoon’s rubber game. Drabek gets the call for the Jays instead of Romero. That may not be such a good thing. The Jays young star has cooled off lately. In fact, he’s got an awful 7.91 ERA and 2.05 WHIP his last three starts. Price wasn’t too sharp last time out either. He’s still got a respectable 3.98 ERA (1.426 WHIP) his last three starts. Price should be happy to see today’s opponent. Indeed, he’s 7-0 (Rays are 8-0) with an exceptional 2.30 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in eight starts vs. Toronto. Price allowed one or fewer earned runs in six of the eight games. The Rays won the last six of those games by a combined score of 34-10. While the price may seem a bit steep, note that the Rays are a profitable 69-25 (+28.6) the past 94 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Consider laying the wood with Price. -Ben Burns

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +117
Motivated by 5 straight defeats, including a pair of embarrassing losses in yesterday’s double header, expect the Brewers to find their way back to the winner’s circle behind Marcum this evening.Marcum has been even better than advertised early on, going 3-1 with an ERA of 2.21. And he has been at his best on the road, where the Brewers have won 3 of his 4 starts and he has posted an ERA of only 1.09. Overall, the Brewers are 4-1 in Marcum’s last 5 starts. Atlanta’s starter Beachy doesn’t offer the same confidence, especially at home where he’s 0-1 (0-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.40. The Braves are 0-4 in his last 4 home starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. We’ll back the Brew Crew behind Marcum at a nice price. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Nationals vs. Phillies Under 7
Washington has a poor offense, ranked 26th in baseball in runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging….so good luck against Roy Halladay (2-1, 2.14 ERA) in this one! At least the Nationals have a reliable starter in lefty John Lannan (3.78 ERA). The Under is 9-3 in the Nationals last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, and 27-10-2 under the total in Lannan’s last 39 starts with 4 days of rest. The Under is 18-8-2 in the Phillies last 28 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 5-2 under the total in Halladay’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Play the Nationals/Phillies Under the total. -Jim Feist (Handicapperspicks.com)

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MLB Picks for May 2nd 2011: Back Jered Weaver And The Angels On Monday Night

May 2, 2011 By

MLB Picks: May 2nd 2011
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Pick: Los Angeles Angels +102
Jered Weaver is scheduled to start tonight after missing his start yesterday. He is 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA and 49 K’s in six starts. Weaver comes in off back to back complete games as he allowed a combined one run and 18 K’s against Oakland and Texas. Los Angeles is 11th in the league hitting .259 as a team with 108 runs. Howie Kendrick is hitting .300 with a team high six homers and 12 RBI while Torii Hunter and Mark Trumbo each have four homers and are tied with the team lead with 13 RBI. Maicer Izturis is hitting .314 with two homers and nine RBI, Alberto Callaspo is hitting .301 with two homers and nine RBI and Hank Conger has three homers and 10 RBI in his rookie year. -Bob Wingerter

Pick: Washington Nationals -109
The Giants are a long way from home and offense has been a major problem, ranked 26th in runs scored and 25th in on base percentage. They go with struggling young Madison Bumgarner who is 0-4 with a 6.17 ERA, allowing a whopping 41 base runners in 23 innings. The Nationals play their best baseball at home (last year this last place team had a winning home record) and starter Tom Gorzelanny has been sharp, with a 3.97 ERA allowing 16 hits in 22+ innings. He’s also 3-0 in his career against the Giants with a 2.33 ERA. Play the Nationals! -Jim Feist

Pick: Florida Marlins +146
The Cardinals are 2-5 their last meetings with the Marlins. St Louis lost to Atlanta 6-5 Sunday and they in first place in their Division. Florida is 12-4 their last 16 games. The Marlins are 5-0 in game one of a series and they are 7-1 after scoring 5 runs or more in their last game. The Marlins are 6-0 vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15 PLAY ON FLORIDA – VOLSTAD -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)

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MLB Picks for April 28th 2011: 3 Teams To Consider Betting On Thursday

April 28, 2011 By

MLB Picks: April 28th 2011
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Pick: Washington Nationals -102
The Mets come in as the much “hotter” team and they’ve won the first two games of this series. I feel the Nationals have an excellent shot at bouncing back and avoiding the sweep. Livan Hernandez gets the call for the home team. The veteran is coming off a shaky outing at Pittsburgh. He’s still got solid overall numbers (3.48 ERA and 1.323 WHIP) on the season though and he’s been outstanding here at home. In three home starts, Hernandez has gone 2-1 with a superb 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He’s averaged 6 2/3 innings in those starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each, and has 12 K’s without walking a single batter. The Nats are now 12-7 his last 19 home starts, dating back to last May. Note that Hernandez’s teams are also 3-1 his last four starts vs. the Mets. Unlike Hernandez, Capuano has gotten off to a fairly tough start. Even after a quality effort last time out, he’s still got a poor 5.95 ERA and 1.523 WHIP. While the Mets haven’t seen Hernandez since last season, the Nats already got a look at Capuano a couple of weeks ago. Note that Capuano’s last start here at Washington resulted in a 7-2 loss with Capuano giving up seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Including that blowout loss in 2007, the Brewers are an awful 3-16 in Capuano’s last 19 road starts, dating back to 2006. With the line having dropped from its opening price, consider backing Washington. -Ben Burns

Pick: Boston Red Sox -176
Boston has shown signs of life, winning 7 of their L10. Their lineup is led by Adrian Gonzales. The 1B is batting .290 with 27 hits. Youkilis, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Drew, and Lowrie have supplied the RBI’s along with Gonzalez (each with 10 or more RBI’s). The squad sends Jon Lester to the mound. The crafty LH is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA on the season. In his career, Lester is an astounding 13-0 with a 2.33 ERA against the Oriole’s. He faces a Baltimore lineup that just isn’t hitting, let alone scoring. They have Bradley Bergesen throwing today. The RH is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA TY, including a 0-2, 7.45 record at home. The Red Sox are 71-34 their L105 games played at the Oriole’s, 6-2 their L8 as a favorite, and 6-0 in Lester’s L6 starts vs. the O’s. The Oriole’s are 0-5 their L5 home games vs. LH starters, 4-11 their L15 overall, and 0-5 in Bergesen’s L5 starts. Take Boston. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -135
Since losing 6 of its first 8 games, St. Louis has rebounded to win 11 of its last 16. Expect the Red Birds to keep right on rolling with the better starter on the hill tonight. Kyle McClellan has been cruising, as evidenced by his 2-0 start (3-0 on the ML) and 1.89 ERA. Conversely, Houston starter Nelson Figueroa has struggled out of the gate to the tune of 0-3 with an ERA of 8.55. I believe St. Louis will have Figueroa’s number tonight, considering it is hitting .324 and scoring 7.0 runs a game on the road this season. Also, the Cardinals are an impressive 10-1 in their last 11 game 3′s of a series. Expect the Red Birds to close out another series strong tonight. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)

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