MLB Picks: June 13th 2011
CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S EXPERT MLB PICKS

Pick: New York Mets +107
The Mets, who have won 7 of their last 10, are playing some of their best ball of the season. They defeated Pittsburgh for the 11th time in the last 15 meetings with a 7-0 shutout Sunday. That win is extremely significant here when you consider that Pittsburgh is just 3-19 in its last 22 games after getting shut out. It is losing these contests by an average score of 6.1 to 2.4. Pittsburgh’s offense has not been performing, especially at home where the Bucs only have 15 home runs this season. Their recent home run drought is significant because they are just 2-24 in their last 26 games after going 3 straight games without a home run. They’re losing by an average of 4.0 runs per game in this situation. It’s also worth noting that the Mets are 4-1 in Pelfrey’s last 5 starts vs. the Pirates, and the Pirates are 0-4 in Maholm’s last 4 starts vs. the Mets. Take New York. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +124
We find it hard to believe that the Marlins deserve to favored in this game. Florida is 1-10 in their last 11 games. Arizona on the other hand is 19-7 in their last 26. The Marlins were able to win game 1 of this series to snap an 8 game losing streak, but have backed that win up with two 4 run losses. Florida will start Ricky Nolasco, who is the main reason why the Marlins are favored, but he is a part of their problem. He is 0-1 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.855 WHIP in his last three starts. Zach Duke will make his 4th start for Arizona, he is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two road starts. Some of you will see that Duke is 0-5 with a 6.49 ERA in his career against the Marlins, but this is a Marlins team without Hanley Ramirez. Also Duke appears to have figured some things out and we feel the value is on him to get the win tonight! -Info Plays

Pick: Atlanta Braves -123
These two teams are clearly moving in different directions and I’m backing the one on the upswing. Houston has dropped 8 of 9 while Atlanta has won 6 in a row. Plus, Atlanta has had no problem with the Astros. Its won 11 of the last 12 meetings overall and 5 straight in Houston. The Braves are 7-1 in Lowe’s last 8 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez is usually solid at home for Houston, but I expect him to struggle in his first start since coming off the DL. Bet the Braves. -Dave Price

Pick: Cincinnati Reds +111
On Monday the MLB Free Play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 911 at 10:10 eastern. The Reds fit a nice dog system that pertains to playing against teams like the Dodgers that are off a road dog win and scored 10 or more runs vs teams off a loss. The Reds have B. Arroyo on the mound and he has had success of late vs the Dodgers. In his last 3 starts he has beat the Dodgers every time and has allowed just 4 runs in 20 innings against them. The Dodgers counter with H. Kuroda and he has lost his last 4 starts. Look for the Reds to get game 1 of this series. On Monday the lead play is the Triple 100% Perfect NL Total of the Month. I also have the Blowout system side the MLB Dog with bite system and a Big Power pitcher system play. MLB on a 12-2 runs after Sunday sweep. Jump on and start the week right. For the free Play take the Reds. -Rob Vinciletti (Handicapperspicks.com)

Courtesy of Mike Rose at Handicapperspicks.com
If you look at baseball betting as if it were the stock market, here’s a look at what we’re buying and selling through a week of play on the diamond.

Bullish Squads

Toronto Blue Jays (5-1, +$588): What a week it was for the Jays! Many thought that this would be the worst team in baseball this year, but after picking up wins in five of their first six, some may be changing their opinions. Then again, this was a team that was in front of the AL East after the first month of the season last year, too, and by the time the season was over, not only did Toronto finish with one of the worst records in baseball, but it also had a miserable money total for its bettors.

San Francisco Giants (5-1, +$419): Pitching is what carried the Giants to a great record a year ago, and that’s exactly what has gotten them through a solid first week of play this year as well. The six games played with four runs or less allowed carried their streak to a solid 13 games in which no team has scored at least five runs on them dating back to last year. The difference is, at least right now, scoring 5.17 runs per game is about 20 percent better than it was at season’s end last year.

Bearish Squads

Houston Astros (0-6, -$626): Whereas we thought that the Blue Jays would be awful and they got off to a good start, the Astros were thought to be awful and… well… were awful in Week 1 of the MLB betting campaign. They only hit two home runs and averaged just 2.17 runs per game this week, and their rotation had a 6.00 ERA. Sell, sell, sell!

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2-5, -$473): Many thought that this would be the year that the Halos finally fell from the top of the AL West standings, and if this first week is any indicator, those MLB pundits were correct. The Halos haven’t scored more than four runs since Opening Day, and they allowed at least nine runs three times in their L/4 overall. Only three starters posted quality outings.

Buy/Sell

Player to Buy – Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-0, 3.00 ERA): The top southpaw for the Pirates had himself a week to remember. He went 2-0, both as sizeable dogs, including beating Arizona’s RHP Dan Haren on the road. Duke only gave up 11 hits and three walks in his 12 innings of work, and if he’s lucky and pitches well enough in the first half of the year, he’ll be playing on a contender by the trade deadline.

Player to Sell – Mike Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles (0-2, 2 BS, 18.00 ERA): For those of us that were suckered into believing that Gonzalez was going to be a real savior for the Orioles bullpen, we can all think again. In his three outings this week, he blew games against both Toronto and Tampa Bay, and in the third outing, he gave up a hit and two walks before finally shutting the door for his first save.

Be sure to check out Mike Rose’ expert MLB picks here