The MLB Betting Market through 4/26: April 26th 2010
If you look at baseball betting as if it were the stock market, here’s a look at what we’re buying and selling through another week of play on the diamond.
Bullish Squads
New York Mets (6-1, +$565): Things are hot and cold for the Mets right now. 3B David Wright is getting booed because he had strikeouts in almost half of his ABs this week, but RHP Mike Pelfrey (whom we’ll discuss later) is on fire. Coming home was just what the doctor ordered for the boys from the Big Apple, as they are a solid 6-1 on this 10 game home stand.
San Diego Padres (5-1, +$433): The Padres rolled off an eight-game winning streak before getting nipped by the Reds in the final game of their three game set on Sunday. The streak moved San Diego to the top of the NL West in spite of the fact that the team is only averaging 4.61 runs per game, the 13th best mark in the majors. No one really expects to see this continue, but for the time being, the Padres’ stock is definitely rising.
Bearish Squads
Pittsburgh Pirates (0-6, -$600): The oddsmakers certainly got it right with the Pirates this week, as they were dogs in every single game that they played. Pittsburgh allowed a whopping 9.2 runs per game this week, including conceding 20 to the Brewers in the most lopsided loss in franchise history. The Bucs started the year at 7-5 and looked ready to compete, but this losing streak has stuffed them back where they belong, in the gutter of the NL Central.
Atlanta Braves (1-5, -$516): The Braves ran into a buzz saw in New York this week, but the bats are starting to become a real concern once again for Manager Bobby Cox. Atlanta hasn’t scored more than four runs in a game in its L/8 baseball betting battles, getting shutout three times in the interim. The team is averaging just 3.89 runs per game this year, but Cox would love to see them get anywhere near that this week after plating just six runs in its L/5 games.
Player to Buy – Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets (2-0, 0.00 ERA): With all due respect to LHP Johan Santana, the man that has kept New York’s pitching staff together has been RHP Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has thrown 24 straight bagels on the board, easily the longest streak in the majors. He has pitched in five games this year and has four wins and a save to show for it. A 0.69 ERA is awesome, and if he can stick anywhere near that for the rest of the year, the Mets are going to be tough to topple.
Player to Sell – Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox (.050 BA, 1 HR): The good news for Quentin is that his one hit this week was a home run. The bad news is that batting 1/20 isn’t going to cut it too often. The Sox are having a miserable time trying to plate runs right now scoring just 3.89 runs per game, and Quentin is a big part of the problem. He hit 21 homers last year and 36 the year before, but this year, he only has three, and his .154 BA is pitiful.
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